Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 30.381452 32.669267 35.137335 38.014073 41.296145 44.949707 49.361014
2025-04-13 26.290380 29.253195 32.639882 36.851769 42.029172 48.297711 56.646485
2025-04-20 24.812423 28.300811 32.462613 37.904126 45.009710 54.255335 67.730573
2025-04-27 23.668131 27.519830 32.272946 38.746724 47.645401 59.991958 79.594848
2025-05-04 22.656598 26.757772 31.961179 39.297052 49.843133 65.357960 92.120403
2025-05-11 21.518905 25.716034 31.155485 39.033995 50.776370 68.917572 102.586762
2025-05-18 20.482171 24.717264 30.303984 38.583426 51.316555 71.871803 112.748644
2025-05-25 19.487820 23.703340 29.344848 37.865086 51.319054 73.879800 121.642246
2025-06-01 18.593643 22.768751 28.425826 37.111601 51.151880 75.524208 130.277826
2025-06-08 17.722194 21.817875 27.422344 36.142278 50.509880 76.180669 136.898194
2025-06-15 17.490694 21.734696 27.643641 37.057014 53.114319 83.390606 162.627601
2025-06-22 16.903098 21.120286 27.052530 36.638072 53.339960 85.919640 177.157518
2025-06-29 16.300375 20.480368 26.421795 36.162599 53.513452 88.604147 194.597167
2025-07-06 15.580547 19.646158 25.464139 35.093581 52.498441 88.568736 203.506310
2025-07-13 15.435331 19.630174 25.731139 36.064571 55.428211 98.130899 255.543434
2025-07-20 15.250189 19.543688 25.879987 36.841021 58.087486 107.876250 322.848052
2025-07-27 15.014243 19.368841 25.877352 37.347679 60.269073 117.128345 406.871976
2025-08-03 14.630030 18.955155 25.473895 37.105542 60.834426 122.091300 477.079008
2025-08-10 14.233750 18.507988 24.994933 36.690611 60.971863 125.867191 550.751256
2025-08-17 13.809848 18.004291 24.402873 36.028576 60.484266 127.607619 613.845114
2025-08-24 13.402595 17.513285 23.812032 35.333468 59.851464 128.763478 678.665074
2025-08-31 12.975917 16.980433 23.133921 34.438208 58.674039 127.858877 718.161532
2025-09-07 12.913048 17.004499 23.369208 35.283083 61.681419 142.557984 1123.371561